IS KANE ABLE? HARRY CLOSING IN ON SHEARER

     The last touch skimmed off of Reece James’ thigh, but Kane wasn’t about to let the dubious goals panel say otherwise, he’s off the mark for this season.

    With his 96^th minute equaliser in the 2-2 draw with Chelsea on Sunday Harry Kane brought his Premier League goal haul to 184 tying him with Manchester City legend Sergio Aguero in 4^th all-time. 184 also ties him with the Argentine as the most Premiership goals scored for a single club. And his 42^nd London derby goal took him to within one of Thierry Henry’s record 43 London derby strikes.

Kane, who turned 29 just three weeks ago, is now just 4 goals from overtaking Andy Cole in 3^rd , 25 from surpassing Rooney in 2^nd and just 77 strikes away from becoming the new all-time top goalscorer in Premiership history. Kane is expected to overtake Wayne Rooney as England’s leading scorer with the Spurs man just 3 away from tying Rooney’s 53. With a couple of Nations League fixtures on the horizon next month Kane could smash the record before or during the World Cup which begins in November this year. 

            

    But his pursuit of Premier League history isn’t quite as straightforward. Take Kane’s fellow elite Premiership goal scorers; Alan Shearer (1^st), Wayne Rooney (2^nd), Andy Cole (3^rd), Sergio Aguero (=4^th) and Thierry Henry (7^th), I’ve excluded Frank Lampard as he was a midfielder and therefore, to quote Roy Keane, it wasn’t necessarily ‘his job’ to find the back of the net.

            Last season marked Kane’s 10^th Premier League campaign at the end of which he’d amassed a total 282 games and 183 goals in England’s top flight, an average 18.3 goals per season. After a decade of Premiership campaigns Alan Shearer sat at 309 games and 204 goals, an average of 20.4 goals per season. Not much in it, and as Kane embarks upon year number 11 in the Prem he does so at 29-years of age. When Shearer’s 11^th season kicked off he was 32-years-old and unbeknown to him he would play just 4 more years. In those following 4 campaigns Shearer added 56 goals, to average 14 per season in his post decade career, as he retired at 35-years-old in 2006. Perhaps what held Shearer back ever so slightly was that for the first 5 years of his playing career, all with Southampton, the Premier League wasn’t yet founded. Shearer scored 23 goals in the old First Division before signing for Blackburn where he played in the inaugural Premier League season. 

            Similarly Andy Cole served 4 seasons outwith the Prem. Cole lined up for Bristol City then Newcastle in the league below the Prem during its inaugural campaign, having spent 3 years prior to that on the books of Arsenal, as well as loan spells with Fulham and Bristol City. So, like Shearer, by the time Cole had surpassed a decade of Premier League years he’d reached the ripe age of 31. Reaching the twilight years for a pro footballer. Unlike Shearer, however, Cole failed to impress during the back end of his Prem career as he managed just 7 goals per season during his final 5 years. A spell in which he represented 5 different clubs! Cole netted 152 goals in his first 10 years a Prem player but despite his impressive record he managed just 1 season with over 20 goals, 1993/94, where he collected his only Golden Boot accolade.

            Wayne Rooney’s average goals also dipped after a decade of playing. With 144 goals across those first 10 years Rooney averaged 14.4 per season. Yet in his final years he averaged 10.7 goals per year with 64 goals. In Rooney’s defence, it didn’t seem like his performance levels had dipped so much as he dropped into a deeper role and his club’s relied on others to grab the goals. Rooney was far younger than Shearer or Cole when his 11^th year began, just 26-years-old, as his playing days started 10 years after the Premier League’s inception. At the beginning of Rooney’s 11^th season United signed Robin Van Persie therefore forcing Rooney to sit deeper and distribute more than goal poach. 

            As expected the first 10 years of a Premiership career tend to be the most prolific. There’s no data disputing this when you analyse the careers of Sergio Aguero or Thierry Henry, as neither completed more than 10 seasons of Premier League football, Aguero featured in exactly 10, and Henry just 9. Proof that life in England’s elite footballing division toughens up after a decade can be seen elsewhere. Robbie Fowler sits 8^th in the charts with 163 goals. Fowler enjoyed 9 highly successful years with Liverpool before leaving Anfield for Leeds United. In those first 9 years with the Scousers and his maiden one at Leeds Fowler scored 136 Premiership goals averaging 13.6 per season. Fowler completed another 5 years in the Prem, but by this time his goals had dried up rather emphatically, as he managed only one year with double figures and averaged just 5.4 goals per season. As expected Michael Owen’s injury plagued career meant his first 10 seasons in England read far more impressive than his final 6. Owen gathered 125 Prem goals during his first decade, an average of 12.5 per season, where as his final 6, spent between Newcastle, Man United and Stoke, saw a mere 4.16 goals per year as he bagged just 25 more taking his total to 150.

            Jermaine Defoe appears to be the only forward on the list who’s ratio didn’t differ too greatly between the beginning and tail end of their career. With 97 goals in his first 10 seasons (average of 9.7 per year) and 65 (an average of 7.2 per season) in his last 9. 

            Take the top 10 Premier League scorers of all-time, again excluding Lampard and of course taking Kane out of the equation, and average how many years they all played in England after exceeding the 10 year mark.

Shearer (4 years), Rooney (6), Cole (5), Aguero (0), Henry (0), Fowler (5), Defoe (9), Owen (6). The average number of seasons they continued on for was just over 4. 

Assuming Kane completes just 4 seasons, including this year, he’ll need 19 goals each campaign to equal Shearer’s 260 goal benchmark at the top. Last season Harry Kane expressed his desire to join the Guardiola regime at Manchester City, likely in a bid to accumulate more silverware than he currently has, nothing thus far. But the stubbornness of Spurs owner Daniel Levy, whom Kane accused of breaking a gentleman’s agreement, saw the Lilywhites reject a staggering £127million bid from Manchester City.

Now Pep Guardiola has a new ace in his deck with the signing of one of football’s hottest prospects former Borussia Dortmund star Erling Haaland. At just 22-years old, the same age as Alan Shearer when he made his Premier League debut, Haaland will have aspirations of dethroning the former Magpies skipper himself. But lets save that debate for a few years down the line. 

Last season Kane’s teammate Heung-Min Son finished as joint top goalscorer in the league alongside Mohamed Salah with 23 goals. This marked the first season since 2013/14 that Kane hadn’t topped Spurs’ goal scoring charts in the league with Emmanuel Adebayor leading the way that year. Kane’s chances of leapfrogging Shearer look to be agonisingly close. With Son vastly improving, and finding himself on the scoresheet more often as he adapts to the English game, it seems that Tottenham aren’t as reliant on the England captain as they were when he first burst onto the scene as a natural finisher. Now with Richarlison in the squad Kane’s competition has risen ever so slightly, although he will continue to be a mainstay in the starting eleven. 

What is interesting to consider is whether Kane’s goal contributions would have improved had the City deal not disintegrated last summer? City’s squad depth is unparalleled in the league and even though Haaland wouldn’t have been a factor had Kane joined last year the attacking options at the Etihad are so great that goals fly in from all across the pitch. 

He’ll humbly play down his very legitimate chances of becoming the Premier League’s greatest ever goalscorer as he looks to focus on finally ending his club’s trophy drought dating back to 2009. At the time of writing this, and up until April/May of next year in fact, Harry Kane is the only player amongst the Prem’s top 7 all-time scorers who hasn’t lifted the league title. Which once again begs the question, one which will have been on the striker’s mind during the transfer saga last year, are Spurs holding Kane back?

Time will tell. In the cruelest of universes Harry Kane could miss out on the number one spot and ultimately end his playing days with no medal to flash whatsoever. But records are made to be broken, Alan Shearer has held top spot for 16 years, and the beautiful game is always evolving.

Popular football website FanNation Futbol have done the maths. An article by Robert Summerscales revealed that Kane’s 184 league goals in 281 games give him a rate of one goal every 1.53 matches. Following that rate Kane would net 77 goals (needed to break the record) in 118 games. Since entering the league Kane has averaged 33.5 Premiership matches per season. This estimates Kane should break the record during the 2025/26 season. Just 4 years from now. The average length of time the league’s top scorers continued banging in the goals before departing or retirement. Kane certainly is able.