Bayou or Hollywood? LSU or USC, which jobs better?

     642 days after delivering a fourth national championship to his beloved Baton Rouge alma mater time is up for LSU head coach Ed Orgeron. Just one day after the Tigers shoot-out victory over the Florida Gators, the LSU administration announced that the remainder of the 2021 season will be Orgeron’s last as LSU head coach. 

A series of personal issues since his 2020 divorce coupled with an underwhelming 9-8 record since the unprecedented 15-0 campaign of 2019 helped Athletic Director Scott Woodward reach the conclusion regarding Orgeron. From a celebrated son of Louisiana to a one-hit wonder, coach O’s stint at his dream job is already being scrutinised less than a week after his dismissal. One things for certain, Orgeron’s departure from the Bayou Bengals leaves one of college footballs most sought after posts vacant. Make that two, after Clay Helton was handed roughly $12million and sent packing from the USC Trojans midway through September. Both Helton and Orgeron held the post as USC interim head coach back in 2013, with just eighteen days separating their respective spells in Southern California. Each coach has some form of championship under their belt within the last three years (USC, PAC-12 South champs in 2020 and LSU, SEC West, SEC and National champs in 2019) thus illustrating the high expectations that these schools, two colossal institutions of the college game, set themselves year after year. With both schools currently in the market for a head coach, it begs the question: Which is the better job, LSU or USC? The Bayou or The Hills? Tigers or Trojans?

At first glance the USC job appears far more appetising. The Trojans Heisman Trophy numbers overshadow the Tigers, 6 to 2 (although Reggie Bush may argue that should be 7), as do national championships, USC’s 11 in comparison to LSU’s 4. USC are based in Los Angeles, where in your leisure time you can wind down by the Pacific or hang with the stars in Hollywood. This is the West Coast where dreams come true. La-La-Land. Well, that’s not quite the case these days. In recent history, perhaps since Pete Carrol’s departure in 2009, dreams have turned to nightmares within USC football, as the Trojans await an invite to the college football playoffs. Across the country, LSU have had backstage passes to Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty, playing alongside the Tide in the SEC West. Yet despite falling victims to Alabama’s monopolisation of college football during the Saban era, even the Tigers can boast a college football playoff appearance, 2019 when they went all the way. If we pull up the final AP polls through each of the last ten college football seasons, and pin the schools side by side, we’re drawn to Louisiana. It’s not a landslide, but in the last ten years LSU have finished inside the AP poll’s top 10 three times, USC just twice. Whilst LSU have only been absent from the final rankings twice in the last decade, the Californians four times. In those ten years, LSU have been declared conference champions twice whilst USC have accumulated just one conference title. 

These numbers speak for themselves, although what is open for interpretation is which conference poses the greater chance of success. Whatever side you sway towards on this however, it’s ultimately a classic catch-22. Take the last three seasons, and again lets look at the final AP top 25 rankings. The PAC-12 have had just five representatives during this period, where as the SEC has seen fifteen sides representing the conference during this same spell. In the college football playoff, which commenced in 2014, PAC-12 schools have only marked two appearances, Oregon once, and Washington once. Although Oregon reached the final in the inaugural campaign, the PAC-12’s win percentage in the playoffs is just .333. Needless to say the SEC has dominated the tournament with eight appearances (Alabama 6, Georgia and LSU 1 each) and a win percentage of .714. You’ll get an easier ride in the PAC-12, playing against a capable Oregon the most strenuous of tasks, now that the Washington hype has dwindled, but dare lose and you’re skating on thin ice. Both the PAC-12 representatives to have received an invite to the playoffs won their conference championship game on route to the final four. The same cannot be said for the SEC. In 2017 Alabama rode to an 11-1 finish, but their loss to Auburn meant that the Tigers would represent the SEC West in the conference championship game and not Bama. It’s common knowledge amongst college football viewers that the SEC is the most prominent conference in the sport. Since the last PAC-12 national champions, USC in 2004 (later vacated), the SEC have provided eleven national champions. Three of those teams (Alabama x6, LSU x2 and Auburn) stem from the same division, the SEC West. There is a far greater chance of receiving a playoff invitation as an SEC member, as history shows, although by agreeing to join LSU you commit to facing Alabama every year, as well as Auburn, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. That coach O won a national title less than two years ago and still lost his job is a testament to LSU’s competitive aspirations. If you acknowledge the cold, hard facts, history, there is no ambiguity regarding which division reaps more success. If you want to win serious titles, you take your chances in the Bayou. 

As well as a greater chance of silverware, something just as crucial can be found in Louisiana, less competition during recruitment. When it comes to top ranked recruits California are certainly in the conversation. 247sports.com have California 4^th in the top talent producing states in the class of 2021, Louisiana can be found in 8^th. To backup Cali in this argument, the top three current Heisman favourites (Bryce Young, Matt Corral and CJ Stroud) all hail from the Golden State. Your knee jerk reaction may be to put USC in the win column under ‘recruiting’, but remember, Bryce Young plays in the SEC, he even de-commit from USC to pursue Saban’s interest. Matt Corral, he’s also slinging it in the SEC, under former USC head coach Lane Kiffin, in Oxford, Mississippi. CJ Stroud didn’t opt for the SEC like Young or Corral, but the young QB preferred to head east to Columbus, Ohio and enrol at Ohio State. Whilst California is choc-a-bloc with young footballing talent, the demand for Cali kids spreads out-with the Golden State and across the nation. Last year, 2020, USC’s recruiting class was ranked 55^th in the country! USC insiders Reign of Troy published an article claiming that since 2002 the Trojans baseline for recruits had been 5.06, meaning a -49.94 drop in the 2020 record low. Although they hit highs of 4^th in the 2017 and 2018 classes, USC football is rapidly declining in the eyes of recruits. LSU’s 2018 class ranked 15^th, their lowest in the last five years, yet the Tigers would go on to win the 2019 national championship regardless. Louisiana aren’t as high up the rankings as California when it comes to recruits, but the competition is nowhere near as fierce. Although some Louisiana recruits head elsewhere, Travis Ettienne to Clemson notably, there’s no in-state competition. No disrespect to the Green Wave or Ragin Cajuns, but top recruits in the state have their eyes on LSU and LSU only. Cali kids are spoilt for choice amongst USC, UCLA, Stanford and Cal, all of whom compete in a conference more reputable than the subordinate Louisiana programmes in Tulane and LA Lafayette. Once again, the proof is in the pudding, LSU’s recruitment class over the last five years has been an average of 6.8, USC’s 18.2. 

USC need one in the win column, and when it comes to quality of life, and job security, they deserve the plaudits. Clay Helton claimed three division titles and one conference championship in seven years as USC head coach, going 2-3 in bowl games. Ed Orgeron accumulated one division, conference and national title in his five years as LSU head coach, all coming in 2019, going 4-1 in bowls. Coach O enjoyed a more fruitful tenure at LSU than Helton did at USC, yet the Tigers athletic department felt that two years removed from a national championship, Orgeron’s services were no longer needed. The hierarchy at USC are aware that their school’s reputation has dipped over the last decade. They know that in the sluggish PAC-12, you need time. And where else would you rather spend this time? We’ll give USC a point for the Los Angeles aesthetic, palms trees and Hollywood, not bad. 

LSU accumulate a lot of credit when you put either school under the microscope, but is it really that simple? Prior to his appointment as Jacksonville Jaguars head coach, Urban Meyer had been tipped as a potential candidate for the USC job. Urban Meyer, as in one of college football’s biggest names in recent years. So the appeal of Southern California is still there. Regardless of LSU’s recent superiority, USC’s list of candidates are sure to be just as star studded as the Tigers’. Time will tell.