Germany - Group F

        It seems like an eternity since Joachim Low steered his country to their 4^th World Cup success at Brazil’s 2014 World Cup. The tournament’s all-time leading goal scorer Miroslav Klose and the man who hoisted the trophy, Philipp Lahm, both walked away from the international stage following the 1-0 win over Argentina, whilst the man of the moment Mario Gotze played his final match for Die Mannschaft back in November 2017 following a catalogue of injuries. Low deployed a 4-3-3 system during the 2014 World Cup run, made possible by the presence of their true centre forward, Klose. Four years later at Russia’s 2018 World Cup, Klose was a distant memory, in his place stepped Timo Werner who’d netted just forty-seven Bundesliga goals in five seasons prior to kick-off in Russia. Other than the obvious downgrade from Klose to Werner, Low’s side saw a huge drop in midfield quality. In 2014 Toni Kroos’ most common midfield pairing were Philipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger, a couple of Bayern Munich legends with over one-thousand appearances for the Bavarian giants combined. By the time the next World Cup rolled around Kroos found himself a man light, playing alongside just one midfielder in a 4-2-3-1, Sami Khedira twice and Sebastian Rudy once as they crashed out of the group stages. Low’s shock exit from the 2018 World Cup groups looks far more explicable now when you consider the transition from a midfield three of Kroos, Lahm and Schweinsteiger to Kroos and Khedira, and the switch from Klose to Werner up top. Germany’s catastrophic display in Russia prompted Joachim Low to drop the 2010 World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller and fellow veteran Mats Hummels. However, the 61-year-old made a U-turn on the decision after a historic thrashing in the Nations League by Luis Enrique’s Spain. The 6-0 defeat to the Spanish in Seville last year gifted Germany their heaviest loss in a competitive fixture and their largest since the early 1930’s. Jerome Boateng was another seasoned squad member axed by Low following 2018’s abysmal attempt at retaining world football’s most coveted prize, although the ball playing central defender was not recalled to the squad for this summer’s competition. Five days before the senior Euros kicks off in Rome, Germany picked up their third Under-21 European Championship with a 1-0 win over Portugal easing some nationwide angst over the future of the German game. Low has named a relatively experienced squad with the delayed championship quite possibly the final European Championship of Neuer, Hummels and Muller’s successful international careers. Although Low isn’t equipped with a handful of promising youths like his rival Southgate in England, a considerable bulk of his squad fall into the mid-20’s bracket with many of them currently in the prime of their careers. Joshua Kimmich (26), Leon Goretzka (26) and Serge Gnabry (25) have all been pivotal for future Germany manager Hansi Flick and his Bayern Munich side over the previous twenty-four months, however the former may revert to his right back role with the German’s significantly light in this area. Elsewhere, Kai Havertz (21) ended his rocky debut season in England well by netting the only goal in the Champions League final two weeks ago, whilst one of the men on the losing side that evening, Ilkay Gundogan, more than doubled his previous best goal tally for the season (6) with thirteen Premier League goals on route to a title triumph. Germany’s primary concern is who will lead the line and where will the goals materialise? Timo Werner’s lacklustre maiden season at Chelsea doesn’t leave many Germans hopeful for the month ahead, with AS Monaco’s Kevin Volland the only other traditional centre forward at Low’s disposal.

 

Odds: 7/1 (Bet365, 4^th favourites)

Prediction: Unfortunately for Joachim Low’s side they find themselves in the unequivocal ‘group of death’ alongside the current European champions, Portugal, and World champions, France. Fortunately, however, three sides can progress to the Round of 16, and all three group games will take place at Bayern’s Allianz Arena in Munich. Should Germany defy the odds and top the group of death, a fixture with the third placed side in Group A, B or C awaits. France are favourites to not only top the toughest group, but to withstand everybody and clinch the title. A second-place finish is far more likely for Low and co, which would schedule a knockout tie with the winners of Group D, who if you ask the bookmakers will be Gareth Southgate’s England. There is a realistic possibly Germany could face England or Belgium in the first knockout stage either of whom should prove too strong for a nation in transition. I see Low’s impressive tenure as Mannschaft head coach coming to a disappointing end in the first knockout round of this summer’s competition.

Tactics:

5-2-3:    Rumour has it Low will employ the exact same set-up in the opening game with France as he did during the recent 7-1 demolition of Latvia. I have copied the same shape (5-2-3, above) but swapped Matthias Ginter with Emre Can as the ex-Liverpool and Juventus man offers more versatility. There are still some suggesting Werner starts as the squad’s most natural number nine, but with Muller occupying the role instead as a false nine, he can allow Gnabry, Havertz or indeed Gundogan from midfield to push on and get into goalscoring positions. Muller will line up as the man leading the line, but will sit deep throughout spells to create space for the wider forwards. This formation once again leaves Kroos with just one partner in the middle of the park, although with Gundogan, and Goretzka on the bench, this won’t be a repeat of the 2018 disaster. Frustratingly, the greatest midfielder in the side and one of the best in the competition will line up at right back. Joshua Kimmich began life at full back before being moulded into one of the most established holding midfielders in Europe. His experience at the back, and the lack of a better option in the position, has landed Kimmich right back duties. Thanks to this formation however, Kimmich will get to advance up field regularly, as Atalanta’s Robin Gosen’s does on the left flank.

 4-3-3:    A far more conventional looking line-up, one in which the Germans used on route to World Cup success in 2014, but perhaps not incorporating the best in each of Low’s men. 4-3-3 lacks the inventiveness Germany may require given their recent struggles. This set up restricts the movement of Kimmich and Gosens up the field, a real shame for two talented men used to playing further up the park. It also throws shackles on Thomas Muller who would much rather roam free in the false nine role, 4-3-3 almost forces him to stay wide. What this formation does do to benefit Low’s side is that it allows him to slip another midfielder in the line-up in place of a central defender. Leon Goretzka is the next man up, having been extremely unfortunate to fall behind Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan, given his terrific form after an impressive lockdown bulk up.