SHIFT OF POWER IN THE SOUTH?

I’ll admit, I was on the Bama bandwagon at the beginning of the season. Along with thousands of others, I fully expected Coach Saban and that chip on his shoulder to roll into the college football play-offs for a sixth consecutive season before becoming national champions yet again. Last season ended in despair for Alabama as they suffered a resounding loss to Dabo Swinney’s Clemson in the national championship. Bookmakers had a Clemson and Alabama rematch in the post season down as a high probability as pre-season training began. Bama began the year on fire as anticipated before quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle sprain just weeks before the Tide were due to host a very inform LSU team. Despite enduring surgery Tua made it back in time but looked far from healthy as he powered through four quarters, only to fall 46-41 in the huge divisional match-up. Saban persevered with Tagovailoa at QB just one week later on the road to Mississippi State. A decision that proved costly as the Heisman hopeful took a huge hit resulting in a broken nose, dislocated hip and potentially the end of his Alabama career. Life without Tua was bearable when Western Carolina came to Bryant-Denny Stadium, Mac Jones and Tua’s younger brother Taulia were more than capable of seeing off the Socon (Southern Conference) minnows. Defence has traditionally been the point of emphasis in a Nick Saban side but 2019 has had other plans, Alabama finished the 2019 regular season 19^th in total defence compared to 4^th last season, allowing 18.8 points per game this time round, four more than their 14.8 in 2018. Although Bama retained their number one ranking in this years recruiting class they were accompanied by three fellow SEC members in the top five, Georgia (2), Texas A&M (4) and LSU (5) showing there is little margin for error in Tuscaloosa. With the absence of dominating defence and arguably their greatest ever quarterback out of the equation Alabama headed to bitter rivals Auburn on Saturday knowing they had to win the Iron Bowl if their play-off push stood a chance. The Crimson Tide had never won in Jordan-Hare when both sides were ranked in the AP top 25, Auburn didn’t feel like changing the trend. Yet again a kicking error on Bama’s behalf halted Iron Bowl success, Joseph Bulovas’ 30 yard field goal attempt struck the upright and ignited pandemonium on the plains. 10-2 this season and with a Tagovailoa departure more than likely, there is a great deal of concern around Alabama’s fan base, not just with their teams struggles but their neighbours in the South are starting to rebel against the Crimson Tide dynasty.

            LSU have looked unplayable at times this season. Again, this is a team who historically boast championship calibre defences but have found difficulty on that side of the ball in 2019. This wild fan base takes great pride in their nickname as DBU (Defensive-back university). The number two Tigers currently rank 14^th in the nation in interceptions with 14. Safety Grant Delpit has picked up the baton left behind by a long line of great defensive backs, a tremendous athlete destined for the pros. Wide-receivers coach/Passing game co-ordinator Joe Brady has been a breath of fresh air for LSU in his first season in Baton Rouge, bringing with him a fiery offence led by Heisman front runner Joe Burrow. In 2018 LSU were averaging 402 total yards per game and 32.4 points per game, typical numbers in an LSU team. Fast forward to 2019 and with Ohio State transfer QB Joe Burrow finding his feet in the SEC, LSU have taken huge strides forward now averaging 560.4 total yards per game (2^nd to just Oklahoma in the NCAA) and 48.7 points per game (2^nd only to Ohio State). This season, for the first time since 2011 (the classic 9-6 OT game) LSU got the better of their SEC West rivals Alabama. Along with the standout road win in Tuscaloosa, the Tigers have prevailed against four top 10 ranked opponents in one regular season (@ #9 Texas, v #7 Florida, v #9 Auburn, @ #5 Alabama), with an opportunity to make it five this Saturday in Atlanta against SEC East champions Georgia. Coach Orgeron is a passionate coach and has this group of players motivated before any game, no matter who they face. After the stunning win in Tuscaloosa, coach O’s emotional post-game interview had Louisiana natives reaching for the tissues, as the big man dedicated the win to the people of the great state. Who wouldn’t want to be coached by a man like Ed Orgeron? With Nick Saban’s time as a head coach drawing closer to the end, suddenly the appeal of the University of Alabama is fading away. How will the programme at Alabama respond when Saban eventually calls his final play? Unless an already highly established coach enters the fray, like a Dabo Swinney, Urban Meyer type, there will be concerns amongst high school recruits. Aside from the potential decline of Alabama, the resurgence of a few conference rivals looks to be contributing to the change of power in the South.

The Georgia Bulldogs have threatened to dethrone Alabama over the past few seasons now, none more than their national championship heartache in 2018 of course, when Tua replaced a struggling Jalen Hurts to deny Georgia a first national title since 1980 (Head Coach Kirby Smart was just five years old at the time). Last season it looked like Georgia may finally have Alabama dead and buried but in an incredible turn of events Tua Tagovailoa suffered an injury allowing his teammate Jalen Hurts, the man who was benched for Tua against Georgia in a title game just one year prior, to come into the game and lead the Tide to victory. This season however the ‘Dawgs’ look better equipped than ever. Georgia have exhibited the best defence in the conference and just about the greatest in the country. Georgia’s defence are currently 2^nd in points allowed per game with an astonishing 10.40 and 4^th in yards allowed per game with 257. This Bulldogs D went through their first nine fixtures before allowing a rushing touchdown, a two-yard run by Auburn’s freshman QB Bo Nix. First year Defensive Coordinator Dan Lanning couldn’t ask for much more from his group as this team are smashing the schools record books on route to a play-off push. Four rushing touchdowns against in the 1968 season is the current record at Georgia followed by five in 1959, both seasons saw Georgia playing just eleven matches, both seasons saw the Dawgs crowned SEC Champions.

In Gainesville, Dan Mullen’s Florida team have been quietly going about their business. Following their 10-2 regular season finish Mullen became the first head coach in Gators history to begin their reign with back to back ten-win seasons. Florida of course have seen their in-state recruiting success flourished by the troubling times of neighbouring rivals Florida State of the ACC.

Auburn, under the guidance of Gus Malzahn, continue their role as the noisy neighbours of the Crimson Tide. Victory over their arch rivals laid a statement on the season for the Tigers as they ended this campaign 9-3, an astonishing achievement given they faced the 2nd hardest strength of schedule. Aside from the bragging rights in their rivalry with Alabama, Auburn are now ranked one spot higher (11^th) in the committee’s play-off rankings, making Alabama just the fifth highest ranked SEC team and potentially missing out on a New Year’s 6 bowl!

 As for the Aggies and their 12^th man in Texas, it’s only a matter of time until Jimbo Fisher starts to produce some of his own talent instead of inheriting the likes of Kellen Mond. A&M are starting to turn heads in recruitment as show by the 2019 class where they landed 6 of 247 Sports 13 highest ranked Texas high school prospects. The Longhorns and Sooners grabbed just two each, A&M are rebuilding under Jimbo. A 7-5 finish doesn’t look fantastic on paper but when you dissect the fixtures, Texas A&M lost all the games they were ‘supposed to lose’. Football Power Index (FPI) ranked A&M with the 4^th toughest strength of schedule heading into the year, a prediction which proved to be justified as the Aggies faced three different number 1 ranked sides along the way, losing all three games. Clemson, Alabama and finally LSU all held the number 1 spot at one time throughout the season. On top of those defeats A&M travelled to Georgia’s Sanford Stadium to lose by just 19-13. The other blotch on their schedule was a one possession loss at Kyle Field, 28-20 to Auburn. Texas A&M are going toe to toe with the big boys in the land and with a national championship winning coach, the only way is up.

            This isn’t a hit the panic button moment in Tuscaloosa. Alabama won’t drift off into the abyss like we’ve seen happen to college football powerhouses such as Miami, Texas, USC etc. For one the SEC is a far more respected conference than the ACC, Big 12 or Pac-12. Facing teams like Georgia, LSU, Florida and Auburn is attractive to top recruits who want to play in the biggest fixtures on primetime tv. If anything, the improvement of SEC rivals could actually better Alabama’s cause. For years questions have been asked about Bama’s shoddy scheduling but if the SEC maintains multiple top 15/top 25 ranked sides, out of conference games shouldn’t be such an issue, the Tide will be sure to face quality teams within their own conference. Whilst Alabama fans feel apprehensive about the near future and the inevitable loss of Nick Saban, the downfall of the Tide’s dynasty makes for more entertainment amongst the neutrals. If there is anyone you don’t write off in football however, it’s Nick Saban. With Alabama’s elimination from play-off contention coming this early Saban has more time than ever to prepare for next season. Who should be more worried the Crimson Tide or the rest of college football?