COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS: TAKE ONE

FIRST TAKE FROM THE OPENING CFP RANKINGS

            It’s that time of year again, we thank the AP Poll for its services up until now then just toss it away to the side, see you next September. The college football play-off committee have had their say on proceedings and laid out their top 25 teams in the country for us to dissect. The new system (college football play-off) has revitalised the sport. In a country like America it’s a surprise such a democratic set-up took so long to put together. The old BCS format narrowed down team’s chances of competing for a national championship whereas the play-offs that we know and love today has opened the door to far more sides to be genuine contenders. As of right now I honestly believe the top eight teams in the CFP rankings control their own destiny. Just win out.

1 – Ohio State, win out, you’re already number one, just keep winning.

2 – LSU, win out, you’ve got three wins over top ten teams, finish the job.

3 – Alabama, win out, not played anyone? Beat LSU and win the SEC, you’re in.

4 – Penn State, win out, beat Ohio State, take the conference, simple as that.

5 – Clemson, win out, Penn St play Ohio St, Bama play LSU, the path will open.

6 – Georgia, win out, win the SEC East, take down Bama and its a given.

7 – Oregon, win out, clinch the PAC-12, they can’t say no!

8 – Utah, win out, clinch the PAC-12, they can’t say no… sounds familiar.

9 – Oklahoma, win out, get on both knees, hands together, pray. That Kansas State loss is going to haunt the Sooners for the remainder of the season and probably the entire off-season. I guess there’s a chance, there’s always a slight chance. The loser of Alabama and LSU won’t be competing for the conference championship and can at best finish the season 11-1. Same goes for the loser of Ohio State and Penn State, the exact same in fact. At best the loser goes 11-1. That’s two down. Clemson lose and they’re done, it’s simple as that, they play in the weakest of the power 5 conferences and can’t afford to drop a single game. The defending champions slip up and Oklahoma can cross them off their list. Either Oregon or Utah are guaranteed to have another loss this season. They look destined to meet head first in a PAC-12 Championship game, meaning someone is crashing out of contention. As for the Georgia Bulldogs at number six, all they have to do is lose the SEC Championship game to Alabama, something they know how to do (sorry Dawgs!), and the Sooners can sneak past them too. It might take a miracle, but college football has conjured up the impossible time and time again so never say never.

First take:

            With the time difference I would’ve had to stay up until 2am Tuesday night/Wednesday morning to actually see the unveiling of the CFP’s opening rankings live. Having to be at work at 8am put an abrupt stop to that thought however! I got up at 7am GMT like I always do midweek and before even adjusting to the light, opened up my phone and headed straight for Twitter to check out the committee’s verdict. As I scanned the top 25 the very first thing that grabbed my attention was that Penn State logo sitting side by side with the number four. Initially I wondered why the Nittany Lions were occupying ‘Clemson’s spot’, the Tigers filling in that position on the AP Poll. Not that Clemson have been as dominant as they were last season but under the leadership of Dabo Swinney we’ve become acquainted with the Tigers and the top four. Clemson are currently the only 9-0 side in college football and despite the uncertainty shadowing them this campaign they have dispatched of seven out of nine of their opponents by thirty or more points. A freak performance in North Carolina against Mack Brown’s Tar Heels was close to curtains for Clemson’s season. The Tar Heels’ failed two-point conversion spared Trevor Lawrence and company any blushes. Texas A&M’s visit to Death Valley had been hyped up as the Tigers biggest test for the season (as the Aggies came into the game ranked 12^th) but Swinney’s men took care of business in a rather comfortable 24-10 victory. Sitting at number five, Clemson have absolutely no margin for error. Without sounding too cruel on some of the teams the defending champions have beaten there isn’t a ‘good win’ amongst their nine W’s. Partly due to the ACC being a mediocre power five conference the past few seasons and partly due to their own poor scheduling out of conference. Penn State on the other hand can brag two impressive wins out of their eight in total. Conference wins at 17^th Iowa and at home to 16^th Michigan the following week were enough evidence the committee needed to push Penn State into the top four. The Nittany Lions defence deserves endless credit for the work they’ve put in so far, allowing the 2^nd fewest points per game and 9^th fewest yards per game. The play-off committee promise us that they disregard history when taking the rankings into consideration. Clemson might be the holders, but everyone starts from scratch the minute that golden play-off trophy is hoisted high in January. On a neutral field I’ll take Clemson over Penn State everyday of the week but that’s just me.

            Strength of schedule is one of the key factors the committee must take into consideration during their discussion. LSU saw off three top ten teams before October had even ended, including a road win in Austin against the Texas Longhorns. Nobody else in college football can compare to LSU’s incredible destruction of top ten sides, even Ohio State, whom the committee deemed to be the number one team in the nation. Whilst strength of schedule does give us a great indication on the quality of a team it sometimes doesn’t tell the whole story. In my opinion Ohio State are the most complete team in college football. The Buckeyes’ offense has maintained the same standard all season, 7^th in passing touchdowns and 15^th in rushing, Ohio State led by Georgia transfer QB Justin Fields pose a threat from all angles. LSU’s offensive numbers edge the Buckeyes but looking at the defensive statistics makes it clear as day that Ohio State are the more all-round side.

TOTAL OFFENSE:

	LSU:	OHIO STATE:
POINTS PER GAME:	46.8 (4th in the nation)	48.3 (3rd in the nation)
YARDS PER GAME:	535.9 (4th in the nation)	514.8 (6th in the nation)
YARDS PER PLAY:	7.55 (5th in the nation)	7.17 (8th in the nation)

TOTAL DEFENCE:

	LSU:	OHIO STATE:
POINTS ALLOWED P/G:	20 (22nd in the nation)	7.90 (1st in the nation)
YARDS ALLOWED P/G:	315.4 (23rd in the nation)	224.3 (2nd in the nation)
YARDS ALLOWED P/P:	4.65 (18th in the nation)	3.59 (1st in the nation)

            One of the great things about the play-off format is the debates it generates. Ohio State and LSU fans will be locking horns on social media as we speak about which side deserves the top spot. Meanwhile across the country in PAC-12 country Oregon and Utah will be cussing out Georgia after the Bulldogs were considered higher than both schools despite that horrendous defeat at home to a sorry South Carolina team. Whilst the Dawgs faithful will use the wins against 7^th Notre Dame and 6^th Florida as justification. The beauty of this is, nobody’s wrong, it’s one opinion against another.

            This first set of rankings is about right. I wouldn’t get too irate about anything in particular. Maybe LSU should be at the top, maybe Clemson (with their extra win) should be ahead of Penn State. As is always the case however, things play out as we progress. LSU have one of the toughest tests out there, a trip to Tuscaloosa to tussle with the Tide. Victory for Orgeron’s Tigers should project them ahead of Ohio State, yet a loss will obviously see them notched down a few spots. Penn State travel to 17^th ranked and undefeated Minnesota on Saturday, a result on the road will further prove their right to the number four spot. What the opening rankings do indicate is how challenging certain teams should find it to reach the play-offs at the end of the season. Oklahoma are very much on the outside looking in at number nine and face an uphill battle if they want to make it three play-off appearances on the trot. All of this will be forgotten about in roughly 48 hours, completely irrelevant. Everything you just read has until Saturday morning before it becomes out of date.  Things are sure to change week after week, it’s championship November and things are sure to heat up. This is what college football is all about!