Pac-12: Conference Cannibalism

​Just four weeks into the 150th edition of college football and the Pac-12 can already see their dim play-off hopes fading away. USC are winning with a 3rd string quarterback, the conference favourites lost at home to one of the worst ranked offenses and a quarterback threw 9 touchdowns in a LOSS. Welcome to Pac-12 football! As things stand with most teams one third through their regular season schedule it’s the Cal Golden Bears who stand alone as the conferences only ‘perfect’ side. At 4-0 the Cal ‘L’ column is completely intact. Since the introduction of the College Football Play-off format in 2014 no two-loss team has been selected into the top four (a semi-final spot). With all but one Pac-12 team already sitting on one loss it doesn’t look like they will see a return to the college football play-off anytime soon. Washington were the last representative of the Pac-12 in the new post season setup but couldn’t progress past Nick Saban’s number one ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, losing the Peach Bowl/Semi-Final 24-7. Since that day (New Year’s Eve 2016) the Pac-12 has been on the outside looking in as other power 5 conferences have competed for a spot in the National Championship year after year.

​Before I delve into this debate any further, yes, I’m aware the Big 10 has been out of the play-off picture for a longer period, however in recent years it’s fair to say their exclusion has been far more touch and go. The Ohio State Buckeyes (25-3 over the past two seasons) are 3-0 against Pac-12 opposition in that time including wins against 2017 Pac-12 champions USC and 2018 champions Washington. Despite that incredible record under head coach Urban Meyer the Buckeyes have been passed on by the play-off committee in both those seasons proving just how strict this group are when deciding on participants. 

​So why don’t the SEC or the ACC have the same problem getting into the play-offs? Quite simple, it’s something I like to refer to as ‘Conference Cannibalism’. For example, the past two seasons we’ve seen the SEC in the play-offs three times (Alabama in 2018 & both Alabama and Georgia in 2017). Those three teams combined went 22-2 in conference play on route to the play-offs. The Washington Huskies alone (Pac-12 champions last season) went 7-2 in their conference last season. In recent years the Pac-12 has resembled WWE’s ‘Royal Rumble’, a free for all with teams knocking each other out left, right and centre. With the freak results over the past few seasons ‘weaker’ opponents in the conference no longer fear the hierarchy of the Pac-12 (USC, Washington, Oregon). Last years conference champions Washington headed into this season as the favourites for consecutive titles, some even tipped the Huskies to break their play-off drought and pose a threat to the Clemson and Alabama dynasties. Understandably fans were left stunned as Cal walked out of Seattle with the win in week 2, a narrow 20-19 victory but a ‘W’ none the less. Two weeks into the season and you could just about write off the conference favourite already.

In the Pac-12 South most pundits, fans etc had Utah down as a dark horse conference champion/play-off hopeful. The Utes made it until week 4 before they fell victim to conference cannibalism. USC, led by 3rd string Quarterback Matt Fink, took down their divisional rivals 30-23 inside the hostile Coliseum on Friday Night Football. This result completed a torrid triangle of results for the Pac-12. Utah’s 30-12 win against their ‘Holy War’ rivals BYU in week 1 was the beginning. BYU’s 30-27 overtime victory against the USCTrojans completed the middle section in week 2, whilst USC rounded it off in their win over Utah. BYU don’t share this conference with USC & Utah (they are an FBS Independent school) but they played their part in exploiting the Pac-12’s ‘friendly fire’ issue we continue to see. Last season Washington kicked off their campaign with a narrow defeat against Auburn on neutral turf before easing past their next five opponents (three of them Pac-12 members) to set up an intriguing road game against the 17th ranked Oregon Ducks. The Huskies left Autzen Stadium empty handed, losing 30-27 in overtime. Travelling to a rowdy Eugene crowd is a strenuous task and defeat can perhaps be looked over howeverjust a fortnight later that same Washington team went to Cal and put just 10 points on the board in a 12-10 defeat against an unranked conference opponent. There was no overcoming a substandard result like that, the outcome signalled the end of the Pac-12’s play-off hopes. Washington went on to play in the conference championship game even with those defeats and despatched of Utah to take the title. That Utah team was also 9-3, their three defeats? Washington, Washington State and Arizona State, all Pac-12 schools.

​We know that the chances of a play-off appearance are slim to say the least but looking ahead to each teams’schedules dismissing the Pac-12 already wouldn’t be outrageous. Cal have started the season well, their best start since going 5-0 in 2015 sees them flying the flag for the Pac-12, but how long will the run last? In two weeks, the Golden Bears make the trip north to Eugene, Oregon to face Justin Herbert and the Ducks. Week 9 they go on the road again, this time to the much-fancied Utah Utes. Should Cal remainundefeated after all this they head into the end of the season with back-to-back home games against Washington State (week 11) and USC (week 12). It’s a shame to downplay Cal who have been the surprise package of the west coast so far this season, but it’s highly unlikely they make it between now and the season finale with UCLA without a few black marks on their cv. The Golden Bears currently rank 9th out of the 12 teams in the conference in total offense showing that they rely rather heavily on their experienced, talented defence. Defence might win championships but this offense has to seriously kick it up a notch if they have any aspirations of competing with the big boys on the national scale. 

​Other than the obvious no loss Cal, Oregon could justify they’re one loss at this moment in time isn’t too damaging. Week 1 the Ducks fell short to true freshman debutant Bo Nix and a strong Auburn Tigers team. Oregon led Gus Malzahn’s Auburn at the half in neutral Arlington, Texas and had contained the young QB Nix for the most part. The Tigers rallied in the second half however and kept pace with their opponents before Bo Nix executed a dart into the midriff of receiver Seth Williams with few seconds remaining who turned and leaped into the endzone clinching a memorable victory for the programme. Auburn are currently ranked 10th in the nation after a 4-0 start and a convincing victory at the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend. Looking back this won’t seem such a devastating loss for Mario Cristobal and his Oregon players, so long as it’s the only obstacle in their path to the play-offs.

​Pac-12 coaches will have certain fixtures highlighted where they believe they can get redemption, make a statement and revive their season. There’s huge conference match-ups in the pipeline for every one-loss team in the Pac-12 to make amends to their poor start. These are a few key dates for Pac-12 diaries. 

Week 5: USC @ Washington

Week 6: Cal @ Oregon

Week 7: Washington State @ Arizona State

Week 8: Utah @ Arizona St​Oregon @ Washington​​Arizona @ USC

Week 9: USC @ Colorado ​Cal @ Utah ​Washington State @ Oregon 

Week 10: Utah @ Washington ​Oregon @ USC

Week 11: USC @ Arizona St ​Washington State @ Cal

Week 12: USC @ Cal

Week 13: Oregon @ Arizona St ​​Utah @ Arizona ​Washington @ Colorado 

Week 14: Washington State @ Washington ​Colorado @ Utah ​Arizona @ Arizona St

​I could ramble on about the Pac-12’s problems. Scenarios from years past where teams have beaten fellow conference members and therefore halted their play-off push. Inconsistency amongst the conference, the lack of a true power house etc. One thing the dozen members simply can’t change however is what happens outside their conference. Give credit where credit is due, the elite programmes of college football (Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma to name a few) just don’t lose a whole lot of games. Alabama and Clemson rolled through last year undefeated in the regular season and each team won their conference championship. Oklahoma lost to 19th ranked Texas midway through last season yet got revenge against their bitter rivals in the Big 12 championship game to finish the year 12-1 (before losing their semi-final). Notre Dame managed a perfect season aswell, 12-0 in the regular season, how could they miss out? No matter what the Pac-12 does, one eye will always be elsewhere, watching to see if there’s that minuscule chance they will even be considered. 

​We can’t exactly expect teams to lay back and take a beating so their conference receives higher credibility, after all everybody loves an underdog story. This could be another long season for the west coast conference and whilst we can discourage the likes of Washington, Utah, USC and Oregon for stumbling their way to the championship game, we should just sit back, relax and watch the merry-go-round that is Pac-12 football.