HOW TO GET IN
With less than a week until selection Sunday the College Football Play-off committee's recent top 25 rankings have given us the indication that there are just seven teams in the hunt for the four play-off spots and a shot at the National Championship. The top three remain unchanged since LSU's 29-0 defeat at home to Alabama moved them off 3rd spot and opened the door to Notre Dame to slide in. Heading into Championship weekend anything could happen. If Alabama lose do they get in? What happens if Oklahoma lose and Georgia beat Alabama, are Ohio State screwed? What do Central Florida need to do to finally get in? I ran the idea by my dad that I was jotting down who needs what to get in and he just dropped his head and sniggered. 'There's a million different scenarios, you can't go over them all.' He's right, it's why we all love college football, each week produces a shock that draws you in more and more. Instead of going over each and every scenario and trying to judge who benefits and who doesn't I thought it would make more sense to simply say what each of the seven 'in the hunt' teams need to snatch a play-off spot. Tuesday nights rankings read as follows:
1. Alabama 2. Clemson 3. Notre Dame 4. Georgia 5.Oklahoma 6. Ohio St 7. Michigan 8.UCF
As much as I feel for Michigan who's only two defeats were on the road against Notre Dame and Ohio State they're done. Two losses and not playing for a conference championship Harbaugh's men can look ahead to a New Years Six bowl and next season as they try to find a way to outdo Urban Meyer's Buckeyes. The remaining 7 teams listed above are the afore mentioned 'in the hunt' sides with a legitimate play-off chance but what do they have to do to get in?
#1: Alabama - In with win OR loss - The Crimson Tide have been number 1 all year long after their dramatic National Championship victory back in January. A loss to a 4th ranked Georgia Bulldog side is nothing to be ashamed of and would certainly be the best defeat (if there really is such a thing) by any 1 loss team. The Sooners and Buckeyes would argue Bama's presence in the play-offs if they win their respective conferences and Saban's boys do not but it's tough to leave Heisman frontrunner Tagovailoa and co out having sat in pole position all season.
#2: Clemson - In with win - I'm not quite so confident Dabo Swinney's Tigers get in if the unthinkable happened and Pitt stole the ACC from the nations number 2 team. Basing this on the idea that both Oklahoma and Ohio State win this weekend. A Clemson loss to an unranked Pitt casts more concerns than the Sooners only defeat thus far against Texas whilst the Buckeyes come into the end of the season piping hot after crushing number 4 Michigan in the shoe, a more eye catching win than any of Swinney's regular season successes. A Georgia win over Alabama and a Clemson defeat would seriously threaten Swinney's chances of a 4th consecutive play-off appearance. Pitt stunned Clemson two years ago in Death Valley, the same year the Tigers won the National Championship but I don't see lightening striking twice here, Trevor Lawrence has looked unplayable since taking over for the now departing Kelly Bryant and Clemson should win comfortably to set up a Cotton Bowl showdown with Notre Dame.
#3: Notre Dame - In - I think I speak for all college football fans when I say I want Notre Dame to join a power 5 conference. I understand how infuriated Fighting Irish supporters would be if the committee snubbed them after they just completed a perfect season (12-0) but just how good are the Irish? Under head coach Brian Kelly Notre Dame defeated four ranked opponents however two of those have since dropped off drastically, Stanford 7th at the time beaten 38-17 and a road win 45-23 at the then 24th ranked Virginia Tech. Give Notre Dame credit they did outclass Michigan on opening day with the 24-17 final score really flattering the Wolverines. Then again Michigan looked to be much more dangerous as they headed into Ohio State last weekend but got put in their place by the current Big10 champions in a 62-39 blow-out. Of course this Notre Dame debate is mere opinion. I feel that the Buckeyes AND Sooners would take care of the Irish but that's not how it works and you can't argue with 12-0. Notre Dame, you're in.
#4: Georgia - In with win - Georgia will be looking for revenge against Tua Tagovailoa and his Bama
team this weekend in the same building the Hawaiian native broke Bulldog hearts just over 10 months ago. If Kirby Smart can find a result against the side he once coached (Defensive coordinator between 08-15) Georgia will looking at their second consecutive year in the college football play-offs. If (and results this season would suggest this is the most likely outcome) Alabama prove too strong for their SEC rivals the Dawgs might still have a fighting chance but they'll be looking to both Northwestern AND Texas for a huge favour. Even if it played out that way with a Buckeyes and Sooners loss the 'outcasts' Central Florida will be knocking on the committee door looking for the shot at the play-offs they feel they were robbed of last season.
#5: Oklahoma - Win and hope for Alabama win - The Sooners know what they have to do to make back to back play-offs. It seems pretty straight forward on paper, then again doesn't everything in college football to begin with? The seemingly indestructible Alabama need to take down Georgia once again whilst the electrifying Kyler Murray must get revenge in the second Red River Rivalry of the season. The SEC championship game kicks off four hours after the Sooners and Longhorns lock horns for the Big12 title. Basically Lincoln Riley simply needs to win and relax as the nations number 1 team and 'champions elect' Alabama open the door to the Sooners play-off journey. If the Tide can help Oklahoma out this weekend the two teams should meet on December 29th for the Orange Bowl. Simple right?
#6: Ohio State - Win and hope for Alabama and Texas wins - First things first for the in form Buckeyes, win! Ohio State's only defeat to date was an embarrassing 49-20 disaster against an unranked Purdue team yet just over 30 days later that same group of guys stunned rivals Michigan 62-39. The Buckeyes would definitely take the crown for the most inconsistent/unpredictable side of the 2018 college football season. A failed 2 point conversion by Maryland just a week prior to the Michigan mauling let Ohio State escape with a 52-51 OT win. The week before that scare however Meyer's boys put in a professional shift to dispose of Michigan State 26-6 in Lansing. Seven days earlier a woeful Nebraska group led the Buckeyes in the shoe and were unfortunate to leave the state of Ohio with a 36-31 loss. The Ohio State defence hasn't terrorised oppositions like Buckeye fans have become accustomed to in recent years, granted they did lose arguably the best defensive player in all of college when Nick Bosa limped off against TCU in September. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins could very well be sat next to Tua Tagovailoa in New York next month as the Heisman trophy winner is announced, for now though he's just hoping the Alabama ace can condemn SEC rivals Georgia to clear the path a bit for Ohio State. Kyler Murray of the Oklahoma Sooners might also be sat beside Haskins in the Big Apple as his heroics have surely earned him at least a runner up spot in the Heisman voting, again however Haskins will be looking to the fellow QB for a bit of assistance. With the Sooners at 5th just one spot ahead of Ohio State Haskins men are going to need an off day from the future MLB star Murray in his Big12 match up with Texas this Saturday afternoon. The path would be clear as day for Urban Meyer to make his 3rd play-off appearance if Alabama and Texas prevail over their conference rivals this weekend.
#8: University of Central Florida - well... - UCF fans will tell you the committee are against them. Two consecutive undefeated regular seasons including the nations longest winning streak (24 games) how can they not be in with a shout? Beat somebody! The Knights have played one power 5 school this season, a home game against Pitt of the ACC ending in a 45-14 UCF win. They had to wait 8 games before facing a team with a winning record and even then the Knights allowed 40 points at home to Temple in a 52-40 win. The following game UCF faced another side with a losing record, beating Navy 35-24. Central Florida's penultimate game against Cincinnati was their first against a ranked side (19th) and did end in a convincing 38-13 victory. Some Central Florida fans will use last years Peach Bowl win over 7th ranked Auburn as ammunition for their play-off push but every years different and the slate resets each fall. I wouldn't count UCF out altogether however. The Knights need to win their own conference with-out star QB McKenzie Milton who was carted off against South Florida last Friday night. With a 12-0 perfect season and a conference championship the Knights will be looking for Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State all to lose putting all three 11-2 and giving the committee a real decision to make. Highly unlikely I know but it's college football and it's November, anything can happen.
The many different scenarios are what makes college football great. Trying to predict the outcome of each game is near impossible even with most matches offering a heavy favourite. The committee have rarely made the wrong decision, just last year Alabama failed to make the SEC championship causing pandemonium when they were selected as the 4th play-off team and we all know how that ended. Deserved national champions. Anything can happen on Saturday night, let's just enjoy it.
#1: Alabama - In with win OR loss - The Crimson Tide have been number 1 all year long after their dramatic National Championship victory back in January. A loss to a 4th ranked Georgia Bulldog side is nothing to be ashamed of and would certainly be the best defeat (if there really is such a thing) by any 1 loss team. The Sooners and Buckeyes would argue Bama's presence in the play-offs if they win their respective conferences and Saban's boys do not but it's tough to leave Heisman frontrunner Tagovailoa and co out having sat in pole position all season.
#2: Clemson - In with win - I'm not quite so confident Dabo Swinney's Tigers get in if the unthinkable happened and Pitt stole the ACC from the nations number 2 team. Basing this on the idea that both Oklahoma and Ohio State win this weekend. A Clemson loss to an unranked Pitt casts more concerns than the Sooners only defeat thus far against Texas whilst the Buckeyes come into the end of the season piping hot after crushing number 4 Michigan in the shoe, a more eye catching win than any of Swinney's regular season successes. A Georgia win over Alabama and a Clemson defeat would seriously threaten Swinney's chances of a 4th consecutive play-off appearance. Pitt stunned Clemson two years ago in Death Valley, the same year the Tigers won the National Championship but I don't see lightening striking twice here, Trevor Lawrence has looked unplayable since taking over for the now departing Kelly Bryant and Clemson should win comfortably to set up a Cotton Bowl showdown with Notre Dame.
#3: Notre Dame - In - I think I speak for all college football fans when I say I want Notre Dame to join a power 5 conference. I understand how infuriated Fighting Irish supporters would be if the committee snubbed them after they just completed a perfect season (12-0) but just how good are the Irish? Under head coach Brian Kelly Notre Dame defeated four ranked opponents however two of those have since dropped off drastically, Stanford 7th at the time beaten 38-17 and a road win 45-23 at the then 24th ranked Virginia Tech. Give Notre Dame credit they did outclass Michigan on opening day with the 24-17 final score really flattering the Wolverines. Then again Michigan looked to be much more dangerous as they headed into Ohio State last weekend but got put in their place by the current Big10 champions in a 62-39 blow-out. Of course this Notre Dame debate is mere opinion. I feel that the Buckeyes AND Sooners would take care of the Irish but that's not how it works and you can't argue with 12-0. Notre Dame, you're in.
#4: Georgia - In with win - Georgia will be looking for revenge against Tua Tagovailoa and his Bama
team this weekend in the same building the Hawaiian native broke Bulldog hearts just over 10 months ago. If Kirby Smart can find a result against the side he once coached (Defensive coordinator between 08-15) Georgia will looking at their second consecutive year in the college football play-offs. If (and results this season would suggest this is the most likely outcome) Alabama prove too strong for their SEC rivals the Dawgs might still have a fighting chance but they'll be looking to both Northwestern AND Texas for a huge favour. Even if it played out that way with a Buckeyes and Sooners loss the 'outcasts' Central Florida will be knocking on the committee door looking for the shot at the play-offs they feel they were robbed of last season.
#5: Oklahoma - Win and hope for Alabama win - The Sooners know what they have to do to make back to back play-offs. It seems pretty straight forward on paper, then again doesn't everything in college football to begin with? The seemingly indestructible Alabama need to take down Georgia once again whilst the electrifying Kyler Murray must get revenge in the second Red River Rivalry of the season. The SEC championship game kicks off four hours after the Sooners and Longhorns lock horns for the Big12 title. Basically Lincoln Riley simply needs to win and relax as the nations number 1 team and 'champions elect' Alabama open the door to the Sooners play-off journey. If the Tide can help Oklahoma out this weekend the two teams should meet on December 29th for the Orange Bowl. Simple right?
#6: Ohio State - Win and hope for Alabama and Texas wins - First things first for the in form Buckeyes, win! Ohio State's only defeat to date was an embarrassing 49-20 disaster against an unranked Purdue team yet just over 30 days later that same group of guys stunned rivals Michigan 62-39. The Buckeyes would definitely take the crown for the most inconsistent/unpredictable side of the 2018 college football season. A failed 2 point conversion by Maryland just a week prior to the Michigan mauling let Ohio State escape with a 52-51 OT win. The week before that scare however Meyer's boys put in a professional shift to dispose of Michigan State 26-6 in Lansing. Seven days earlier a woeful Nebraska group led the Buckeyes in the shoe and were unfortunate to leave the state of Ohio with a 36-31 loss. The Ohio State defence hasn't terrorised oppositions like Buckeye fans have become accustomed to in recent years, granted they did lose arguably the best defensive player in all of college when Nick Bosa limped off against TCU in September. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins could very well be sat next to Tua Tagovailoa in New York next month as the Heisman trophy winner is announced, for now though he's just hoping the Alabama ace can condemn SEC rivals Georgia to clear the path a bit for Ohio State. Kyler Murray of the Oklahoma Sooners might also be sat beside Haskins in the Big Apple as his heroics have surely earned him at least a runner up spot in the Heisman voting, again however Haskins will be looking to the fellow QB for a bit of assistance. With the Sooners at 5th just one spot ahead of Ohio State Haskins men are going to need an off day from the future MLB star Murray in his Big12 match up with Texas this Saturday afternoon. The path would be clear as day for Urban Meyer to make his 3rd play-off appearance if Alabama and Texas prevail over their conference rivals this weekend.
#8: University of Central Florida - well... - UCF fans will tell you the committee are against them. Two consecutive undefeated regular seasons including the nations longest winning streak (24 games) how can they not be in with a shout? Beat somebody! The Knights have played one power 5 school this season, a home game against Pitt of the ACC ending in a 45-14 UCF win. They had to wait 8 games before facing a team with a winning record and even then the Knights allowed 40 points at home to Temple in a 52-40 win. The following game UCF faced another side with a losing record, beating Navy 35-24. Central Florida's penultimate game against Cincinnati was their first against a ranked side (19th) and did end in a convincing 38-13 victory. Some Central Florida fans will use last years Peach Bowl win over 7th ranked Auburn as ammunition for their play-off push but every years different and the slate resets each fall. I wouldn't count UCF out altogether however. The Knights need to win their own conference with-out star QB McKenzie Milton who was carted off against South Florida last Friday night. With a 12-0 perfect season and a conference championship the Knights will be looking for Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State all to lose putting all three 11-2 and giving the committee a real decision to make. Highly unlikely I know but it's college football and it's November, anything can happen.
The many different scenarios are what makes college football great. Trying to predict the outcome of each game is near impossible even with most matches offering a heavy favourite. The committee have rarely made the wrong decision, just last year Alabama failed to make the SEC championship causing pandemonium when they were selected as the 4th play-off team and we all know how that ended. Deserved national champions. Anything can happen on Saturday night, let's just enjoy it.
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